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上半年二手房市场生变:成交量走低 倒逼业主主动降价

发布于:2018-11-08 11:37

上半年二手房市场格局生变 成交量走低“倒逼”业主主动降价
 
In the first half of the year, the secondary housing market structure changed and volume decreased, forcing owners to take the initiative to reduce prices.
 
 
 
随着楼市调控政策的力度加大,今年上半年楼市调控效果明显。北京、上海、深圳等一线城市的新房成交量都出现下滑,而这种态势也蔓延到了二手房市场。
 
With the increase of the market control policy, the effect of property market regulation is obvious in the first half of this year. Trading volume of new houses in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen has declined, and this trend has also spread to the second-hand housing market.
 
 
 
楼市成交全面降温
 
Property market overall cooling
 
 
 
去年调控以来政策层面的步步收紧,以及2015~2016年大量有效房源和客源的消耗,上海二手房市场出现持续回调迹象。上海链家数据显示,2017年上半年,上海全市二手房成交较去年同期大幅下跌52.21%,其中二手住宅同比下跌55.06%。
 
With the tightening of policy level since last year's regulation and the consumption of a large number of effective housing resources and customers from 2015 to 2016, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai shows signs of sustained recovery. According to Shanghai Chain Home Data, in the first half of 2017, second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai fell by 52.21% compared with the same period last year, of which second-hand housing fell by 55.06% compared with the same period last year.
 
 
 
从成交分布来看,位置较为偏远的金山、奉贤两区成交比重上涨较为显著,金山区由原来的3.89%上升至5.27%,奉贤区也从原来的4.02%上升至4.79%;而传统的刚需区域,如果宝山、闵行、青浦、松江,其在全市二手住宅市场中所占比重则都出现了不同程度的下滑,刚需出现了进一步外移的倾向。
 
According to the distribution of transactions, the proportion of transactions in Jinshan and Fengxian districts, which are relatively remote, has risen significantly, from 3.89% to 5.27% in Jinshan district and 4.02% in Fengxian district, while that in Baoshan, Minhang, Qingpu and Songjiang districts, which are in traditional need, has increased to 4.79% in the second-hand housing market of the whole city. All of them have declined to varying degrees, and the trend of outward migration is just needed.
 
 
 
与去年相比,浦东依然是成交的重点区域,成交比重在16个区县中排名第一,高达25.18%,而排在第二位的闵行成交比重才9.67%,如此高的差距,充分显示了浦东对置业人群的吸引力。
 
Compared with last year, Pudong is still the key area of transaction, ranking first among 16 districts and counties, as high as 25.18%, while Minhang, ranking second, has only 9.67%. Such a high gap fully demonstrates the attraction of Pudong to the home buyers.
 
 
 
上海链家表示,上海二手房交易量大幅下滑、成交重心的外移,充分说明购房政策下各类投机需求得到了抑制,这对于市场的稳定有积极作用。同时,在成交量持续下滑的市场中,新增房客源量减少,房源报价调整中降价比例扩大,议价空间扩大等现象的出现,均会影响后市价格走向。
 
Chains in Shanghai said that the sharp decline in the volume of second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai and the shift of the focus of transactions fully illustrate that speculative demand has been suppressed under the purchase policy, which has a positive effect on the stability of the market. At the same time, in the market where the volume of transactions continues to decline, the decrease of new tenants, the expansion of price reduction ratio and the expansion of bargaining space in the adjustment of housing quotation will all affect the future price trend.
 
 
 
小户型低总价当道
 
Small household low total price
 
 
 
除了成交量发生明显变化,今年上半年上海二手房市场在成交户型、成交总价、成交区域上也出现了一些新的亮点。
 
In addition to the obvious changes in the volume of transactions, in the first half of this year, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai has also seen some new bright spots in the types of transactions, the total transaction price and the transaction area.
 
 
 
受益于低总价,小户型依然是市场上的“快销品”,而且需求出现大幅倾斜。上海链家数据显示,在今年上半年成交房源中,面积在90平方米以下的占比72.67%,总价在300万元以下的占比64.75%。与2016年上半年相比,50平方米以下和50~70平方米面积段的房源成交比重分别增长了3.94%、2.69%,成交比重均有较为明显的上升。相反,70~90平方米房源有小幅下滑,90~120平方米及120平方米以上面积段的成交比重均有较大幅度下降。
 
Benefiting from the low total price, small apartments are still the "fast-selling products" in the market, and demand has been substantially skewed. According to the data of Shanghai Chain Home, in the first half of this year, 72.67% of the total housing volume was less than 90 square meters, and 64.75% of the total housing price was less than 3 million yuan. Compared with the first half of 2016, the proportion of housing transactions in the areas below 50 square meters and between 50 and 70 square meters increased by 3.94% and 2.69%, respectively. The proportion of housing transactions increased significantly. On the contrary, the supply of 70-90 square metres of housing declined slightly, and the proportion of 90-120 square metres and more than 120 square metres of land decreased considerably.
 
 
 
与去年上半年相比,成交总价在500~800万元之间的房源成交占比在2017上半年增长了2.87%,总价在800万以上的成交占比也小有增长,这一变化显示了在调控中,可能一部分改善客将置业目标放在了500~800万元之间或总价更高的房子。
 
Compared with the first half of last year, the proportion of the total price of housing between 5 million and 8 million yuan increased by 2.87% in the first half of 2017, and the proportion of the total price above 8 million yuan also increased slightly. This change shows that in the regulation and control, some of the improvements may be aimed at housing between 5 million and 8 million yuan or higher.
 
 
 
成交房源集中外围区域并占比走高也印证了楼市调控中购房者更倾向于“控总价”的房源和板块。上海链家数据显示,以往不受关注的金山新城、南桥新城、临港新城等上海环郊板块,今年上半年成交量都很可观。结合上述的成交户型、总价、面积段分析数据可以发现,刚需依然是二手房市场上的主力消费人群。
 
The high proportion of the transaction housing resources in the peripheral areas also confirms that the buyers tend to "control the total price" of the housing resources and plates in the regulation and control of the property market. According to the data of Shanghai Chains, the outskirts of Shanghai, such as Jinshan New Town, Nanqiao New Town and Lingang New Town, which were not paid attention to in the past, had a considerable turnover in the first half of this year. Combining the above data of transaction type, total price and area segment analysis, we can find that just needed is still the main consumer in the second-hand housing market.
 
 
 
新一轮降温周期出现
 
A new cooling cycle appears
 
 
 
当二手房持续出现6个月以上成交走低,即可初步判断,新一轮降温周期已经来临。
 
When the second-hand housing continued to decline for more than six months, it can be preliminarily judged that a new cycle of cooling has come.
 
 
 
自去年9月起,在政策逐渐收紧的情况下,全市二手房成交量开始进入了下行轨道,此后一路滑坡,并在春节长假等多重因素影响下,在今年1、2月份达到谷底;虽然3月楼市凭借季节性影响出现了短暂的快速回升,但从今年4月起,再度进入了逐月下行轨道。
 
Since September last year, with the policy tightening gradually, the volume of second-hand housing in the city began to enter the downward track, and then declined. Under the influence of many factors such as the Spring Festival Holiday, it reached the bottom in this year and February. Although the property market rose rapidly in March due to seasonal influence, it began in April this year. Once again, it has entered the monthly downward trajectory.
 
 
 
上海链家认为,二手房成交量下滑,一方面来自于调控后投机需求的遏制和购房者预期的改变。受整体成交量萎缩的影响,业主主动调低房价的多了。上海链家门店工作人员反馈:“很多房源目前都很有诚意出售,而且价格上面还有浮动。而且与调控前房源难以议价不同的是,此前只有急用钱的业主才会愿意让价卖房,而这两个月,一些业主则主动来电要求更改挂牌房源的价格,通常在原始挂牌基础上调低2%~3%。”
 
Shanghai chains believe that the decline in second-hand housing transactions, on the one hand, comes from the control of speculative demand after regulation and the change of buyers'expectations. Affected by the shrinking volume of the total turnover, the owners voluntarily reduced the housing prices. The staff of Shanghai chain store feedback: "Many houses are sold in good faith at present, and there are fluctuations in prices. Moreover, unlike the difficulty of bargaining on the regulation of the front housing supply, only the owners who were in urgent need of money would be willing to sell their houses at a reduced price. In these two months, some owners actively called to change the price of the listed housing supply, usually lowering the price by 2%-3% on the basis of the original listing.
 
 
 
另一方面与信贷环境有关。首付比例提高、利率优惠取消等,彻底遏制住了杠杆炒房的路径,也在一定程度上影响了改善型和投资型需求的释放,现有成交比例中已经出现商贷比例大幅下降、全款比例连续升高;去年9月至今,政府从控地价、控房价等各方面出台的一系列政策,改变了人们对楼市的预期,相信此轮市场会逐步降温,交易价格趋于合理。
 
On the other hand, it is related to the credit environment. The increase of down payment ratio and the cancellation of preferential interest rate have completely curbed the path of leveraged speculation, and also affected the release of improved and investment-oriented demand to a certain extent. The proportion of commercial loans has dropped sharply and the proportion of full funds has continuously increased. Since September last year, the government has controlled land prices, house prices and other aspects. A series of policies have changed people's expectations of the real estate market. We believe that this round of market will gradually cool down and the transaction price will become reasonable.
 

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