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未来5年中国5G产业总体市场投资将超万亿美元

发布于:2018-10-29 15:06

近日,两则消息再次让5G成为关注焦点。一则是“中国铁塔”在港交所主板上市,成为今年以来全球最大首次公开募股,一个重要原因是该公司将为未来5G网络建设提供站址资源和服务;另一则是德勤关于中美两国5G发展的报告。当前全球5G布局竞争已经拉开帷幕,各国都希望在这场颠覆性技术革命中抢占先机。
 
Recently, two messages have again made 5G the focus of attention. One is the listing of the China Tower on the main board of the HKEx, making it the largest IPO in the world so far this year. One important reason is that the company will provide site resources and services for future 5G network construction. The other is Deloitte's report on the development of 5G between China and the United States. The current global 5G layout competition has begun, and all countries hope to seize the lead in this disruptive technological revolution.
 
 
 
 
 
运用空间巨大
 
Great use of space
 
 
 
说起5G,很多人的第一印象是上网快,“飞一般的网速”,视频通话、线上直播、网络购物、网络游戏等再也不用担心网速问题。这只是5G的一个最基本的运用,随着5G商用的步伐越来越近,更多与5G相关的应用场景将出现。
 
Speaking of 5G, many people's first impression is that the Internet is fast, "flying average speed of the network", video calls, live broadcast, online shopping, online games, etc. no longer need to worry about speed. This is just one of the most basic applications of 5G, and as 5G commercials get closer and closer, more 5G-related application scenarios will emerge.
 
 
 
比如,借助5G高网速、低时延特性,无人驾驶汽车会敏锐探测并避开周围物体,从而真正实现大规模运用;远程医疗的内容将更丰富,诊疗也会更准确、更及时,医疗资源共享将成为现实;而借助于万物互联,制造业会变得更智慧化,能连接起从原材料到生产到消费者全过程;而且,5G比4G更安全。
 
For example, with the help of 5G high-speed, low-delay features, driverless cars will be keen to detect and avoid the surrounding objects, thus truly achieving large-scale use; telemedicine will be richer, diagnosis will be more accurate, more timely, medical resource sharing will become a reality; and with the help of the interconnection of all things, manufacturing will become more intelligent. It can connect the whole process from raw materials to production to consumers. Moreover, 5G is safer than 4G.
 
 
 
未来5G将广泛与各行业、垂直领域合作,是虚拟现实与增强现实、智慧城市、智慧农业、工业互联网、智能电网、车联网、应急安全等领域的基础性技术。因此,5G商用空间充满想象。
 
In the future, 5G will cooperate with various industries and vertical fields extensively. It is the basic technology in the fields of virtual reality and augmented reality, smart city, smart agriculture, industrial Internet, smart grid, vehicle networking, emergency safety and so on. Therefore, 5G commercial space is full of imagination.
 
 
 
高通预测,到2035年,5G将在全球创造12.3万亿美元的经济产出,预计2020年至2035年间,5G拉动全球经济增长贡献将达到约3万亿美元,与当前印度国内生产总值相当。德勤近日发布的报告则指出,由于5G带来“未开发经济潜力的时代”,率先采用5G通信的国家将获得“不成比例的收益”。
 
Qualcomm predicts that by 2035, 5G will generate $12.3 trillion in global economic output. It expects that between 2020 and 2035, the contribution of 5G to global economic growth will reach about $3 trillion, equivalent to India's current GDP. Deloitte recently issued a report pointed out that as the 5G brings "an era of untapped economic potential", the first countries to adopt 5G communications will get "disproportionate benefits".
 
 
 
先发优势明显
 
Obvious first mover advantage
 
 
 
在推动5G发展上,中国企业积极主动,不仅打破了国际通信行业巨头在专利标准方面的垄断,还有望成为“领头羊”。在技术方面,根据联合国世界知识产权组织数据,2017年中国企业的专利申请量同比增长13.4%,而华为和中兴通讯已连续5年成为全球最大的两家专利申请者。在5G领域,华为约拥有所有专利的10%,中兴通讯专利全球超过1700件。有机构认为,中国企业正在5G领域建立一个庞大的知识产权库。
 
In promoting the development of 5G, Chinese enterprises have taken the initiative to break the monopoly of international telecommunications giants on patent standards, and are expected to become a "leader". In terms of technology, according to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), patent applications by Chinese companies rose 13.4% in 2017 from a year earlier, while Huawei and ZTE have been the world's two largest patent applicants for five consecutive years. In the field of 5G, HUAWEI has about 10% of all patents, and ZTE has more than 1700 patents worldwide. Some organizations believe that Chinese enterprises are building a huge intellectual property pool in the field of 5G.
 
 
 
在标准制定方面,2016年11月17日,华为公司提出的极化码成为5G短码解决方案;2017年12月,中国移动等企业完成了5G空口场景和需求研究项目,成为5G标准无线空口技术标准的制定者。这意味着中国企业在5G规则制定上拥有更多话语权。
 
In terms of standard-setting, on November 17, 2016, the polarization code proposed by Huawei became a 5G short code solution; in December, 2017, China Mobile and other enterprises completed the 5G air gap scenario and demand research projects, and became the formulator of the 5G standard wireless air gap technical standards. This means that Chinese enterprises have more voice in the formulation of 5G rules.
 
 
 
据了解,中国从2015年9月就启动5G技术研发试验,目前正处于试验第三阶段,预计到今年年底,5G产业链主要环节基本达到预商用水平。同时,中国电信设备厂商也积极与全球多家电信运营商合作,共同试验5G设备。
 
It is understood that China has started the 5G technology R&D experiment since September 2015, and is currently in the third stage of the experiment. It is expected that by the end of this year, the main links of the 5G industry chain will basically reach the pre-commercial level. At the same time, Chinese telecom equipment manufacturers are actively cooperating with a number of telecom operators around the world to test 5G equipment.
 
 
 
在全球多家咨询机构和市场调研机构看来,目前美国以及中国、韩国等亚洲国家站在第一梯队,中国优势尤其明显。德勤认为,中国自2015年以来花费在5G领域的投资已经比美国多出240亿美元,已建成支持5G通信的基站数为35万座,而美国同期不到3万座。未来5年中国5G产业总体市场投资将超万亿美元,美国想要跟上节奏,必须花费中国投资的2.67倍。
 
The United States, China, South Korea and other Asian countries are in the first echelon, and China's advantage is particularly obvious. Deloitte believes China has spent $24 billion more on 5G since 2015 than the United States, with 350,000 base stations built to support 5G communications, compared with less than 30,000 in the United States over the same period. Over the next five years, China's 5G industry will invest more than a trillion dollars in the overall market, and the United States will have to spend 2.67 times as much investment as China to keep pace.
 
 
 
全球竞争加剧
 
Global competition intensifies
 
 
 
今年以来,多个国家都在加快推动5G发展。韩国宣布将在2019年3月开始5G商业化应用,成为全球第一个推出商用化5G网络的国家;瑞典的爱立信与英特尔等企业合作,完成了3.5GHz频段端到端的非独立组网标准5G数据呼叫;美国移动通信巨头威瑞森电信宣布,今年将在美国11座城市进行5G试验性运营;在中国,华为早前推出了全球第一款5G商用芯片以及端到端全系列5G产品,联想则于近日推出首款带有5G模块的手机。
 
This year, many countries are speeding up the development of 5G. South Korea announced that it would start 5G commercial applications in March 2019, becoming the first country to launch a commercialized 5G network in the world; Sweden's Ericsson, in collaboration with Intel and other companies, completed the end-to-end 3.5GHz non-independent networking standard 5G data calls; and the US mobile communications giant Verizon Telecom announced that it will have 11 U.S. stations this year. In China, Huawei launched the world's first 5G commercial chip and an end-to-end full range of 5G products, while Lenovo recently launched its first mobile phone with a 5G module.
 
 
 
这是自2018年6月14日第五代移动通信技术标准(5GNR)推出后,全球在5G布局上竞争加剧的反映。除了商业运用领域,未来随着5G技术的深入发展,标准制定和部署的争夺将更加激烈。正如某国外知名电信公司首席执行官所言,5G是网络领域的“蓝海”,掌握主导权是未来发展的关键所在。
 
This is a reflection of the intensified global competition in the 5G layout since the launch of the 5GNR on June 14, 2018. In addition to commercial applications, the future with the in-depth development of 5G technology, standard formulation and deployment will be more intense competition. As the chief executive of a well-known foreign telecom company said, 5G is the "blue sea" in the network field, and mastering the dominant power is the key to future development.
 
 
 
中国在宏观层面积极支持5G发展。《“十三五”规划纲要》《“十三五”国家信息化规划》《国家信息化发展战略纲要》《信息通信行业发展规划(2016-2020年)》等重要文件中,均提出要积极推进5G产业发展。近两年,中国还采取了取消漫游费等一系列提速降费措施,支持建设了目前全球最大的5G试验外场。
 
China's macro level area supports 5G development very much. In important documents such as the "13th Five-Year Plan Outline", "13th Five-Year Plan", "National Informatization Development Strategy Outline" and "Information and Communication Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)", it is proposed to actively promote the development of 5G industry. In the past two years, China has also taken a series of measures to speed up and reduce fees, such as abolishing roaming fees, to support the construction of the world's largest 5G test field.
 
 
 
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中兴通讯发布5G网络智能化白皮书:即将进入万物智联时代
 
ZTE releases the 5G network intelligent white paper: it is about to enter the era of all things intelligence.
 

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