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二线城市房贷全面收紧 利率预期将继续上行

发布于:2018-11-08 11:27

继一线城市房贷利率大幅上涨之后,二线城市房贷利率也迎来全面收紧,各二线城市首套房贷平均利率接近甚至超过基准利率,预计后几个月仍将保持上行趋势。
 
Following the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates in first-tier cities, the mortgage interest rates in second-tier cities have also been tightened in an all-round way. The average interest rates of first-home loans in second-tier cities are close to or even exceed the benchmark interest rates. It is expected that the upward trend will be maintained in the next few months.
 
 
 
融360监测数据显示,6月全国首套房平均利率为4.89%,为基准利率的9.97折,环比上升了3.38%;6月份全国仍有11家银行提供9折优惠利率,超八成的银行无利率优惠,有32家银行执行基准利率上浮,为基准利率的1.05-1.2倍不等。6月份二套房平均利率为5.43%,与上月的5.40%相比略有上涨。其中上浮10%利率的银行占比为87.24%;上浮10%以上的银行占比为8.06%;其中3家银行二套房贷利率执行基准上浮30%。
 
According to the monitoring data of Rong360, the average interest rate of the first apartment in China was 4.89% in June, which was 9.97% of the benchmark interest rate, up 3.38% annually. In June, 11 banks in China still offered 9% of the discount interest rate. Over 80% of the banks had no interest rate preference, and 32 banks implemented the rise of the benchmark interest rate, ranging from 1.05 to 1.2 times of the benchmark interest rate. In June, the average interest rate of the two suites was 5.43%, slightly higher than that of 5.40% last month. Among them, 87.24% are banks with 10% interest rate rising, 8.06% are banks with 10% interest rate rising, and 30% are banks with 2-suite loan rate rising.
 
 
 
去年同期,全国优惠利率占比为85.31%,而今年6月优惠利率占比仅为14.61%。6月份全国533家银行中,11家银行提供9折优惠利率,较上月减少93家;63家行提供9.5折优惠利率,较上月减少69家。超八成的银行已无利率优惠,其中399家银行执行基准利率,较上月增加155家;32家银行执行基准利率上浮,为基准利率的1.05-1.2倍不等。
 
In the same period last year, the national preferential interest rate accounted for 85.31%, while the preferential interest rate in June this year accounted for only 14.61%. In June, 11 of the 533 banks offered 9% discount interest rate, which was 93 lower than last month; 63 banks offered 9.5% discount interest rate, which was 69 lower than last month. More than 80% of the banks have no interest rate preferences, of which 399 banks have implemented the benchmark interest rate, an increase of 155 compared with last month; 32 banks have raised the benchmark interest rate, ranging from 1.05 to 1.2 times the benchmark interest rate.
 
 
 
一线城市中,北京地区首套房利率平均折扣为基准1.01倍,平均利率为4.97%,目前能提供优惠折扣的银行只有汇丰(9.3折)和花旗(9.5折)这两家,大多数银行已取消优惠折扣政策;上海、深圳、广州目前仍有部分银行提供基准以下优惠折扣,但总体额度有限。二线城市中,超7成银行首套利率已回归基准。
 
In the first-tier cities, the average discount rate of the first suite in Beijing is 1.01 times that of the benchmark, and the average interest rate is 4.97%. At present, only HSBC (9.3 discount) and Citigroup (9.5 discount) can offer preferential discount. Most banks have cancelled the preferential discount policy. At present, some banks in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou still offer the following preferential rates. Discount, but the overall limit is limited. In the second tier cities, more than 7 banks have returned to their benchmark interest rates.
 
 
 
融360分析师李万赋认为,受房贷政策性紧缩的时滞效应影响。一线城市对于房地产政策反应敏感,大多数银行于5月份已率先调整至基准水平,甚至基准上浮10%;二线城市相对缓慢,6月份开始大面积的房贷利率收紧,全面上浮逼近基准利率。
 
Li Wanfu, a 360 analyst, believes that the lag effect of the policy tightening of mortgage policy is affected. First-tier cities are sensitive to the real estate policy. Most banks have taken the lead in adjusting to the benchmark level in May, even up 10% of the benchmark. Second-tier cities are relatively slow. In June, they began to tighten the mortgage interest rate in a large area, and the overall rise is close to the benchmark interest rate.
 
 
 
首套房首付水平占比方面,仍以3成首付为主。截至6月30日,在全国533家银行中首付2成的有108家银行,占比20.26%,较上月持平; 首付3成的有344家银行,占比达64.54%;首付3.5成的银行有58家,占比10.88%;停贷的有21家银行支行,占比3.94%。
 
The proportion of the first suite of the down payment level is still 3 to the down payment. As of June 30, 108 out of 533 banks in China had 20.26% down payment, which was flat compared with last month; 344 out of 30% down payment accounted for 64.54%; 58 out of 3.5% down payment accounted for 10.88%; 21 out-of-loan branches accounted for 3.94%.
 
 
 
“收紧的房贷叠加房地产调控政策,约束房价上涨作用更明显。”中原地产市场总监张大伟表示,信贷是决定短期房价的最关键因素,预计下半年,整体房贷数据会出现同比下调。
 
"Tightening mortgage loans superimpose real estate regulation and control policies, and restrain the rise of housing prices is more obvious." Zhang Dawei, Director of Central Plains Real Estate Market, said that credit is the most critical factor in determining short-term housing prices. In the second half of the year, the overall housing loan data is expected to decline year-on-year.
 
 
 
“预计此后几个月,房贷利率仍然会保持上行趋势。”李万赋表示,随着流动性收缩、银行负债成本上升,资产收益下行导致银行的收入及利润承压,再加上信贷额度的限制,银行逐步减弱房贷折扣、提高房贷利率就成为必然选择。
 
"It is expected that mortgage interest rates will continue upward trend in the next few months." Li Wanfu said that as liquidity shrinks and the cost of bank liabilities rises, the downturn in asset returns leads to pressure on banks'income and profits, coupled with the limitation of credit lines, it is inevitable for banks to gradually reduce mortgage discounts and raise mortgage interest rates.
 
 
 
不过,房贷政策一刀切,首套房利率上浮误伤刚需群体,也招致批评声。厦门大学金圆研究院理事长戴亦一表示,有关方面应当对“金融机构将首套房房贷利率也一并上调”的做法进行干预,金融机构不应在房贷政策上“一刀切”,应区别对待各种购房者,从而支持购买首套房刚需客户的积极性,防止房价“大涨”的同时,也要防止“大落”。
 
However, the housing policy is one size fits all, and the first suite of interest rates go up and go wrong. Dai Yiyi, chairman of Jinyuan Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that the relevant parties should intervene in the practice of "financial institutions raise the interest rate of first-home mortgage at the same time". Financial institutions should not be "one size fits all" in the housing loan policy, and should treat different buyers differently, so as to support the enthusiasm of customers who just need to buy first-home. To prevent housing prices from going up, we should also prevent "big ups".

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